Pollshit
Polls show that about 50% of Americans can’t think for themselves.
In his January 6 Substack remembrance of the 2021 insurrection, Robert Reich, esteemed author, lawyer, and Secretary of Labor in the Bill Clinton administration, noted that in a recent poll 70% of Republican voters still believe Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen. A December University of Maryland poll showed that 34% of Republicans believe the FBI organized and encouraged the insurrection (compared with 30% of independents and 13% of Democrats).
So what do we make of these polls? I’ll bet you just now said to yourself “um…that Americans are stupid?” Here’s an experiment. Close your eyes and think about the answer to this question: What percentage of voting-age Americans have such limited critical-thinking ability that their beliefs and opinions would have little or no influence on your own beliefs and opinions?
Now, let’s look at the data. Since the Moon landing in 1969, most polls have found that somewhere between 4% and 7% of Americans believe the whole thing was staged. In a more recent 2021 online poll, conspiracy theory researchers found that 12% of Americans believe NASA faked the lunar landing. The longer the door has been left open (having no chance to personally observe the footprints or flag left behind) and the more far-reaching the conversation (thanks mostly to social media and talk radio), the more people are sucked into the fantasy. In that same study, 10% believe the Earth is flat and 9% believe vaccinations implant microchips. When asked to state whether they agree or disagree with various scientific statements, only 75% agree the Earth is billions of years old (8% disagree); 58% agree that humans evolved; 64% agree humans are changing the climate; 69% agree vaccinations are mostly beneficial; and 83% agree the Earth revolves around the sun.
Stupefying indeed. I find myself yearning to talk with the 17% of Americans who do not agree that the Earth revolves around the sun, but then quickly come to my senses at the futility. Who are these people? No, they are not all Floridians. It turns out that Millennials (currently 25–40 years old — 72 million in the U.S.) are most likely to agree with all three conspiracies: that vaccinations implant microchips (17%), the Earth is flat (18%), and NASA astronauts did not land on the Moon (24%). The GI, Silent, and Boomer generations are much more skeptical about these claims (0–7% agree). On the flip side, younger respondents were significantly more likely to agree with the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities: 71%/79% among Millennials and Gen Z (compared with 47% among the oldest group, Silent/GI generations), and 56%/60% percent among Boomers and Gen X.
And, of course, political persuasion is a heavy factor in most polling. In a 2013 poll, 20% of Republicans agreed with the statement that President Obama is the Anti-Christ, compared with 13% of Independents and 6% of Democrats. What jumps out at you when you think about that? Wait…six percent of Democrats believe that Obama is the Anti-Christ? That’s about 1 out of 17 Democrats — the so-called educated side of the political spectrum. And recall Reich’s poll that found 13% of Democrats believe the FBI was behind the insurrection — nearly 1 in 7 Democrats. Is it safe now to say we can immediately disregard 10% or so of public opinion poll findings as utter nonsense?
Benjamin Radford, the LiveScience author of the Obama poll adds:
“Conspiracy theorists see a hidden hand behind the world’s major events, including social and political changes. Even though conspiracy theorists claim to want to expose the conspiracy and thwart its goals (such as establishing a New World Order), some take comfort that the world is not merely random — that things happen for a reason. Though conspiracy believers don’t feel in control of the events, they feel that at least someone is (or a small cabal of powerful ‘someones’ are).”
Phil Plait, in a September 2023 article for Scientific American wrote:
“Conspiracy thinking necessarily turns the scientific process upside down, settling on a conclusion first and then seeking evidence for it while ignoring or attacking any evidence against it. This mindset is ripe for shaping by political groupthink, which amplifies closed belief systems, inuring them from outside remediation. Cultlike behavior, such as that of backers of the QAnon movement, may start as an outlier in such an environment but eventually become everyday ideology. We see it now from some members of Congress who were reelected in the midterms, showing that they still have support not only despite but because of outlandish things they believe and say. And do.”
Plait goes on further to say:
“A willingness to believe such claims without evidence, to dismiss expert experience and to entertain conspiratorial ideas is at play here, and smaller, more ‘fun’ ideas like the Apollo mission being a hoax are a foot in the door to a universe of nonsense…This is the nature of the razor-thin path of scientific reality: there are a limited number of ways to be right but an infinite number of ways to be wrong. Stay on it, and you see the world for what it is. Step off, and all kinds of unreality become equally plausible.”
Because there are an infinite number of ways to be wrong, I’ve always thought these polls about “beliefs” and “opinions” need to include some measure of conviction. Say, for example, you are one of the 18% of Millennials who believe the Earth is flat and I approach you, clipboard in hand, as you wheel your baby stroller down the sidewalk. Flanked by two large men in black trench coats and dark aviator sunglasses, I ask for your participation in my poll: “One of my agents here has indisputable proof in that envelope regarding the shape of the Earth. Would you be willing to bet the life of your baby on whether or not the Earth is flat?” I’m going to go out on a limb to suggest my type of polling takes the “fun” out of unreality responses, and that 18% plummets precipitously.
What of the 70% of Republicans who believe the 2020 election was stolen? Would they bet their child’s life on it? Poring through the actual 50-page research report, it turns out this number is actually 71% — 30% based on “suspicion only” and 41% based on their belief in “solid evidence”. Another 27% of Republicans (96% of Democrats) believe Biden legitimately won the presidency. Pollsters and behavioral scientists have long understood the difficulties most people have in publicly acknowledging a belief that conflicts with their political or moral/religious views, so I see 27% as an extraordinarily high number. You know it’s a seriously fractured demographic when 4 in 10 believe there is solid evidence (without any basis in fact or law) the election was stolen, while half of their remaining six comrades believe exactly the opposite — that Biden legitimately won. If you are one of the overall 38% of flat earthers in the stolen election camp, you’ve probably convinced yourself that sixty federal courts, Trump’s own Department of Justice, and Trump’s own Department of Homeland Security were all part of some unknown conspiracy when they all concluded there was no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
Returning to my question: What percentage of voting-age Americans have such limited critical-thinking ability that their beliefs and opinions would have little or no influence on your own beliefs and opinions? Before 1980 (Reagan), I would have estimated somewhere around 20% of Americans are just plain stupid, based on personal experiences and observations. Considering the tens of millions of Americans bamboozled by the Great Pyramid Scheme of trickle-down economics buttressed by decades of corrupt legislation and supreme court decisions that trickled money up instead, right under their noses, and that adds another 10% at least. The undeniable power of social media and conservative “news” outlets to amplify and automate the lies adds 10% more. Now recall that 74 million Americans voted for Trump in 2020 despite having four years to personally observe the Orangetan’s behaviors in his unnatural settings. Mix all that with an electorate blasted in the face nonstop since 2015 by a carnival barker megaphoning utter nonsense from atop the world’s tallest soapbox, and you’re at 50% with no argument from anyone. Half of the opinions of others mean absolutely nothing — formed entirely in the absence of personal study, introspection and critical thought.
When you hear of Biden’s approval rating or the results of any other “poll of public opinion”, keep their mindlessness in mind and remember that none of these poll responses have consequences. Use your own brain and vote like your life and our children’s lives depend on it. This could be the last election in which your vote is actually counted.
